Process Drivers, Inter-Model Spread, and the Path Forward: A Review of Amplified Arctic Warming

Arctic amplification (AA) is a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean process. This understanding has evolved from the early concept of AA, as consequence snow-ice line progressions, through more than century research that clarified relevant processes and driving mechanisms AA. The predictions made by modeling studies, namely fall/winter maximum, bottom-heavy structure, prominence surface albedo feedback, importance stable stratification have withstood scrutiny multi-decadal observations complex models. Yet, uncertainty in climate projections larger any other region planet, making assessment high-impact, near-term regional changes difficult or impossible. Reducing this large spread requires quantitative process understanding. manuscript aims to build such an synthesizing current knowledge AA produce set recommendations guide future research. It briefly reviews history science, summarizes observed changes, discusses approaches feedback diagnostics, assesses most feedbacks These sections culminate conceptual model fundamental physical causing collection accelerate progress towards reduced projections. Our highlights need account for local remote interactions within context annual cycle constrain projected We recommend raising priority sensitivity research, improving accuracy energy budget observations, rethinking definitions, coordinating new experiments intercomparisons, further investigating role episodic variability